New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC

Match Analysis & Predictions

USA: Major League Soccer

Sat, 17th Oct, 2026 • 23:30 Regular Season - 30
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls
8th in table
WLWLL
0 VS 2
Finished
HT 0 - 1
Toronto FC Toronto FC
11th in table
LLWDW
3' Justin Che (Own Goal)
52' Zane Monlouis
67' Lewis Morgan
82' Dániel Sallói
87' Derrick Etienne Jr.

Expert Prediction · Double Chance

1X @ 1.36 (68% chance) Lost

Double chance : New York Red Bulls or draw
68% confidence

Match Odds · Bet365

Home Win

1.67 57% implied

Draw

4.50 21% implied

Away Win

4.33 22% implied

All Our Tips For This Match

Double Chance 1X @ 1.36
Both Teams Score BTS @ 1.40
Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison Marcos De Oliveira

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
10games
6New York Red Bulls wins
4Draws
0Toronto FC wins
2.5Goals per game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
14 Mar 2026Major League Soccer Toronto FC 1 - 1 New York Red Bulls
25 Jun 2025Major League Soccer Toronto FC 1 - 1 New York Red Bulls
22 Mar 2025Major League Soccer New York Red Bulls 2 - 1 Toronto FC
02 Oct 2024Major League Soccer Toronto FC 1 - 4 New York Red Bulls
28 Jul 2024Leagues Cup New York Red Bulls 0 - 0 Toronto FC
22 Jun 2024Major League Soccer New York Red Bulls 3 - 0 Toronto FC
07 Oct 2023Major League Soccer New York Red Bulls 3 - 0 Toronto FC
17 May 2023Major League Soccer Toronto FC 0 - 0 New York Red Bulls
18 Jun 2022Major League Soccer New York Red Bulls 2 - 0 Toronto FC
05 Mar 2022Major League Soccer Toronto FC 1 - 4 New York Red Bulls

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 Nashville SC 292063 63:22 +41 66 WWWWD
2 Inter Miami 2914105 70:50 +20 52 WWLDD
3 New England Revolution 2915410 48:41 +7 49 WLLWW
4 Chicago Fire 291469 52:43 +9 48 LWWWL
5 Charlotte 301389 53:45 +8 47 DLWLW
6 Philadelphia Union 3013710 61:48 +13 46 DWWWW
7 Orlando City SC 2911513 54:69 -15 38 DWLLW
8 New York Red Bulls 2910613 39:54 -15 36 LWLWW
9 FC Cincinnati 289910 60:68 -8 36 LWLDD
10 New York City FC 298912 42:40 +2 33 LLDLW
11 Toronto FC 2971210 44:55 -11 33 DWLLL
12 DC United 287129 36:47 -11 33 WLDLD
13 Columbus Crew 299515 44:47 -3 32 WLWWL
14 Atlanta United FC 298615 36:48 -12 30 WLDWD
15 CF Montreal 296617 35:59 -24 24 LLWLL

Top scorers

Major League Soccer
1 L. MessiInter Miami 23goals 12assists 26apps
2 P. MusaFC Dallas 19goals 5assists 25apps
3 M. IloskiPhiladelphia Union 18goals 2assists 29apps
4 D. BouangaLos Angeles FC 17goals 5assists 28apps
5 B. WhiteVancouver Whitecaps 17goals 2assists 27apps
6 K. DenkeyFC Cincinnati 17goals 3assists 27apps
7 S. SurridgeNashville SC 17goals 1assists 23apps
8 Rafael NavarroSt. Louis City 17goals 5assists 29apps
9 GuilhermeHouston Dynamo 16goals 7assists 28apps
10 K. YeboahMinnesota United FC 16goals 2assists 28apps

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Our goal model
API-Football
Bookmaker
New York Red Bulls Draw Toronto FC
Value spotted: Toronto FC win at 4.33 (model 31% vs market 22%)

Most likely scores

1-1 10.9%
2-1 9.2%
1-0 8.1%
1-2 7.3%
2-0 6.8%
0-1 6.4%

Expected goals: 1.7 New York Red Bulls · 1.35 Toronto FC

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Both teams score61%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
69%
Form
31%
54%
Attack
46%
67%
Defence
33%
59%
Goal model
41%
75%
Head to head
25%
67%
Goals
33%
65%
Overall
34%

Recent form

3 W 2 D 5 L in the last 10
17 Oct 2026Major League Soccer New York Red Bulls 0 - 2 Toronto FC L
14 Oct 2026Major League Soccer DC United 2 - 1 New York Red Bulls L
10 Oct 2026Major League Soccer New York Red Bulls 4 - 1 San Diego W
30 Sep 2026Major League Soccer New York Red Bulls 0 - 3 St. Louis City L
18 Sep 2026Major League Soccer New York City FC 0 - 1 New York Red Bulls W
12 Sep 2026Major League Soccer Columbus Crew 0 - 1 New York Red Bulls W
10 Sep 2026Major League Soccer Los Angeles FC 2 - 0 New York Red Bulls L
06 Sep 2026Major League Soccer Seattle Sounders 0 - 0 New York Red Bulls D
29 Aug 2026Major League Soccer New York Red Bulls 1 - 3 Philadelphia Union L
22 Aug 2026Major League Soccer New York Red Bulls 1 - 1 Chicago Fire D
4 W 3 D 3 L in the last 10
17 Oct 2026Major League Soccer New York Red Bulls 0 - 2 Toronto FC W
14 Oct 2026Major League Soccer Toronto FC 3 - 3 Orlando City SC D
10 Oct 2026Major League Soccer Toronto FC 2 - 1 CF Montreal W
27 Sep 2026Major League Soccer Nashville SC 2 - 0 Toronto FC L
20 Sep 2026Major League Soccer St. Louis City 3 - 1 Toronto FC L
12 Sep 2026Major League Soccer Orlando City SC 3 - 0 Toronto FC L
09 Sep 2026Major League Soccer Toronto FC 2 - 1 Nashville SC W
05 Sep 2026Major League Soccer Toronto FC 4 - 4 Chicago Fire D
29 Aug 2026Major League Soccer Toronto FC 1 - 1 New York City FC D
22 Aug 2026Major League Soccer Inter Miami 1 - 2 Toronto FC W

Season numbers

Major League Soccer 2026

When the goals come

7
0-15'
4
5
16-30'
3
7
31-45'
6
6
46-60'
7
3
61-75'
8
9
76-90'
16
8
0-15'
6
4
16-30'
7
8
31-45'
10
14
46-60'
10
10
61-75'
7
12
76-90'
15
New York Red Bulls Toronto FC

Side by side

New York Red Bulls Toronto FC
29 Played 29
10 Won 7
6 Drawn 12
13 Lost 10
1.3 Goals scored per game 1.5
1.9 Goals conceded per game 1.9
1.6 / 1.1 Scored per game (home / away) 2.1 / 0.8
4 Clean sheets 3
8 Failed to score 5
2 Longest winning run 2
4-1 Biggest win 3-2
0-3 Biggest defeat 2-4
1/1 Penalties scored 0/0

What comes next

New York Red Bulls
Inter Miami (H) 24 Oct
New England Revolution (A) 28 Oct
Nashville SC (A) 01 Nov
Atlanta United FC (H) 07 Nov
Toronto FC
Columbus Crew (A) 24 Oct
DC United (H) 28 Oct
Atlanta United FC (A) 01 Nov
Philadelphia Union (A) 07 Nov
Bottom thirdMid tableTop third

Missing players

New York Red Bulls
A. Marcucci Knee Injury
R. Donkor Leg Injury
Toronto FC
B. Kuscevic Yellow Cards
R. Laryea Yellow Cards
N. Palacio Lower-Body Injury
W. Zimmerman Ankle Injury

Betting markets

Odds: Bet365
New York Red Bulls 1.67 60% implied
Draw 4.50 22% implied
Toronto FC 4.33 23% implied
New York Red Bulls 1.33 75% implied
Toronto FC 3.25 31% implied
Over 0.5 1.01 99% implied
Under 0.5 23.00 4% implied
Over 1.5 1.08 93% implied
Under 1.5 8.00 13% implied
Over 2.5 1.33 75% implied
Under 2.5 3.40 29% implied
Over 3.5 1.83 55% implied
Under 3.5 1.83 55% implied
Over 4.5 2.75 36% implied
Under 4.5 1.40 71% implied
New York Red Bulls/Draw 13.00 8% implied Our tip
New York Red Bulls/Toronto FC 26.00 4% implied
Draw/Toronto FC 10.00 10% implied
Draw/Draw 8.00 13% implied
New York Red Bulls/New York Red Bulls 2.60 38% implied
Draw/New York Red Bulls 5.50 18% implied
Toronto FC/New York Red Bulls 17.00 6% implied
Toronto FC/Draw 15.00 7% implied
Toronto FC/Toronto FC 6.50 15% implied
Yes 1.40 71% implied
No 2.75 36% implied
2:1 9.00 11% implied
1:1 9.50 11% implied
3:1 12.00 8% implied
2:2 12.00 8% implied
2:0 13.00 8% implied
1:0 15.00 7% implied
3:2 15.00 7% implied
1:2 15.00 7% implied
New York Red Bulls/Draw 1.22 82% implied Our tip
New York Red Bulls/Toronto FC 1.18 85% implied
Draw/Toronto FC 2.10 48% implied
New York Red Bulls 2.10 48% implied
Draw 2.75 36% implied
Toronto FC 4.00 25% implied

Odds can change. Implied probability = 100 / odds and includes the bookmaker margin. 18+ Gamble responsibly.

New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC: preview and prediction

New York Red Bulls host Toronto FC in the USA Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 30) on Saturday, 17th October 2026 at 23:30 at Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison. New York Red Bulls sit 8th in the table and Toronto FC 11th. New York Red Bulls are 3 points ahead (36 to 33).

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
8 New York Red Bulls 2910613 39:54 -15 36
11 Toronto FC 2971210 44:55 -11 33

Full Major League Soccer standings

New York Red Bulls are struggling, with 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 games (W-L-W-L-L). Toronto FC have been inconsistent, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (L-L-W-D-W).

In the last 10 meetings, New York Red Bulls won 6, Toronto FC won 0 and 4 ended level. These games average 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% and over 2.5 goals in 50%.

Our goal model expects about 1.7 goals for New York Red Bulls and 1.35 for Toronto FC. It gives New York Red Bulls the edge (46% home win, 24% draw, 31% away win), 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 1-1.

Our pick was Double Chance (1X) at odds of 1.36. We also like Both Teams Score (BTS).

New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC FAQs

What is the best prediction for New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC?

Our top tip is Double Chance: 1X (1.36 odds).

Who will win New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC?

New York Red Bulls are favourites: our model gives New York Red Bulls 46%, the draw 24% and Toronto FC 31%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 61% chance in our model, and it happened in 50% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 3.1 goals in total, with a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC?

Kick-off is on Saturday, 17th October 2026 at 23:30 at Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison.

Who is the referee?

Marcos De Oliveira is in charge of this game.

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