Middlesbrough vs Cardiff

Match Analysis & Predictions

England: Championship

Sat, 17th Oct, 2026 • 11:30 Regular Season - 11
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough
3rd in table
DDWWD
2 VS 2
Finished
HT 0 - 2
Cardiff Cardiff
19th in table
LWLWD
19' Brian Barry-Murphy
22' Jack Moylan
25' Joel Bagan
45+1' Ollie·Tanner
58' Tommy Conway
61' will lankshear
83' Gabriel Osho
88' Jack Moylan

Expert Prediction · Both Teams Score

BTS @ 1.44 (72% chance) Won

Double chance : Middlesbrough or draw
72% confidence

Match Odds · Bet365

Home Win

1.53 62% implied

Draw

4.50 21% implied

Away Win

5.50 17% implied

All Our Tips For This Match

Both Teams Score BTS @ 1.44
Home Win 1 @ 1.53
Double Chance 1X @ 1.17
Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough Tom Nield

Head to head

Last 9 meetings
9games
6Middlesbrough wins
2Draws
1Cardiff wins
2.9Goals per game
56%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
04 Jan 2025Championship Middlesbrough 1 - 1 Cardiff
31 Aug 2024Championship Cardiff 0 - 2 Middlesbrough
27 Apr 2024Championship Cardiff 1 - 4 Middlesbrough
03 Oct 2023Championship Middlesbrough 2 - 0 Cardiff
11 Feb 2023Championship Cardiff 1 - 3 Middlesbrough
13 Sep 2022Championship Middlesbrough 2 - 3 Cardiff
27 Apr 2022Championship Middlesbrough 2 - 0 Cardiff
23 Oct 2021Championship Cardiff 0 - 2 Middlesbrough
27 Feb 2021Championship Middlesbrough 1 - 1 Cardiff

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 Swansea 11722 16:8 +8 23 LWWWW
2 West Ham 11641 30:12 +18 22 WWDDW
3 Middlesbrough 11641 22:16 +6 22 DWWDD
4 Birmingham 11551 20:11 +9 20 WWWDW
5 West Brom 11623 15:12 +3 20 WWLLD
6 Stoke City 11614 18:16 +2 19 WLWWW
7 Southampton 11632 21:10 +11 17 DWWLW
8 Wolves 10523 18:15 +3 17 WLLWW
9 QPR 11452 15:12 +3 17 LWDDD
10 Blackburn 11434 17:16 +1 15 LWWDW
11 Sheffield Utd 11434 15:14 +1 15 WLWLL
12 Millwall 11434 18:18 0 15 DLWDD
13 Portsmouth 10424 13:13 0 14 WWLDD
14 Wrexham 11353 15:16 -1 14 WLDWL
15 Bolton 11425 15:18 -3 14 DWLWW
16 Bristol City 11425 12:15 -3 14 LLDWL
17 Charlton 11353 10:15 -5 14 LDDLD
18 Lincoln 11335 9:19 -10 12 DLLLW
19 Cardiff 11254 18:17 +1 11 DWLWL
20 Watford 11326 10:19 -9 11 WLLLL
21 Norwich 11308 17:21 -4 9 LLLLL
22 Burnley 11155 16:21 -5 8 LDWDL
23 Derby 11137 9:20 -11 6 LLDDL
24 Preston 11119 9:24 -15 4 LLLDL

Top scorers

Championship
1 W. LankshearMiddlesbrough 8goals 0assists 10apps
2 C. LarinSouthampton 7goals 0assists 10apps
3 J. BowenWest Ham 6goals 5assists 10apps
4 Fer LópezWolves 5goals 2assists 10apps
5 K. MavropanosWest Ham 5goals 0assists 9apps
6 M. TouréNorwich 5goals 0assists 7apps
7 J. MoylanCardiff 5goals 2assists 10apps
8 O. AfolayanBlackburn 4goals 2assists 10apps
9 K. MooreWrexham 4goals 1assists 10apps
10 T. CampbellCharlton 4goals 1assists 10apps

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Our goal model
API-Football
Bookmaker
Middlesbrough Draw Cardiff

Most likely scores

2-1 9.9%
1-1 9.4%
2-0 9%
1-0 8.6%
3-1 6.9%
3-0 6.3%

Expected goals: 2.1 Middlesbrough · 1.1 Cardiff

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Over 3.5 goals40%
Both teams score58%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
61%
Form
39%
55%
Attack
45%
40%
Defence
60%
76%
Goal model
24%
93%
Head to head
7%
80%
Goals
20%
67%
Overall
32%

Recent form

5 W 4 D 1 L in the last 10
17 Oct 2026Championship Middlesbrough 2 - 2 Cardiff D
13 Oct 2026Championship Stoke City 2 - 3 Middlesbrough W
10 Oct 2026Championship Middlesbrough 1 - 0 Wolves W
19 Sep 2026Championship Birmingham 2 - 2 Middlesbrough D
15 Sep 2026Championship Middlesbrough 2 - 2 Millwall D
12 Sep 2026Championship Middlesbrough 4 - 3 Norwich W
08 Sep 2026League Cup Crystal Palace 3 - 0 Middlesbrough L
05 Sep 2026Championship QPR 0 - 1 Middlesbrough W
02 Sep 2026Championship Burnley 1 - 1 Middlesbrough D
29 Aug 2026Championship Middlesbrough 3 - 1 West Brom W
2 W 3 D 5 L in the last 10
17 Oct 2026Championship Middlesbrough 2 - 2 Cardiff D
13 Oct 2026Championship Cardiff 5 - 1 Watford W
10 Oct 2026Championship Blackburn 2 - 1 Cardiff L
19 Sep 2026Championship Cardiff 3 - 1 Charlton W
12 Sep 2026Championship Bolton 1 - 0 Cardiff L
08 Sep 2026Championship Cardiff 1 - 1 Stoke City D
05 Sep 2026Championship Portsmouth 2 - 0 Cardiff L
02 Sep 2026Championship QPR 2 - 1 Cardiff L
29 Aug 2026Championship Cardiff 2 - 2 Sheffield Utd D
25 Aug 2026League Cup Cardiff 1 - 2 Norwich L

Season numbers

Championship 2026

When the goals come

3
0-15'
3
2
16-30'
2
2
31-45'
4
6
46-60'
1
4
61-75'
3
5
76-90'
2
3
0-15'
3
0
16-30'
4
1
31-45'
4
4
46-60'
3
3
61-75'
0
1
76-90'
2
Middlesbrough Cardiff

Side by side

Middlesbrough Cardiff
10 Played 10
6 Won 2
3 Drawn 4
1 Lost 4
2 Goals scored per game 1.6
1.4 Goals conceded per game 1.5
2.4 / 1.6 Scored per game (home / away) 2.4 / 0.8
2 Clean sheets 0
0 Failed to score 2
2 Longest winning run 1
3-1 Biggest win 5-1
2-1 Biggest defeat 2-0
0/0 Penalties scored 1/2

What comes next

Middlesbrough
Bolton (A) 23 Oct
Charlton (H) 31 Oct
Wrexham (A) 04 Nov
Watford (A) 07 Nov
Bristol City (H) 21 Nov
Cardiff
Birmingham (H) 24 Oct
Wolves (A) 31 Oct
West Ham (H) 04 Nov
Burnley (H) 07 Nov
Norwich (A) 21 Nov
Bottom thirdMid tableTop third

Missing players

Middlesbrough
A. Jones Calf Injury
R. Pukstas Injury
D. Strelec Injury
Cardiff
C. Chambers Knee Injury
R. Colwill Ankle Injury
D. Lawlor Hamstring Injury
Y. Salech Inactive

Betting markets

Odds: Bet365
Middlesbrough 1.53 65% implied Our tip
Draw 4.50 22% implied
Cardiff 5.50 18% implied
Middlesbrough 1.17 85% implied Our tip
Cardiff 5.00 20% implied
Over 0.5 1.01 99% implied
Under 0.5 23.00 4% implied
Over 1.5 1.11 90% implied
Under 1.5 6.50 15% implied
Over 2.5 1.40 71% implied
Under 2.5 3.00 33% implied
Over 3.5 1.91 52% implied
Under 3.5 1.91 52% implied
Over 4.5 3.20 31% implied
Under 4.5 1.36 74% implied
Middlesbrough/Draw 15.00 7% implied Our tip
Middlesbrough/Cardiff 34.00 3% implied
Draw/Cardiff 13.00 8% implied
Draw/Draw 8.00 13% implied
Middlesbrough/Middlesbrough 2.20 45% implied
Draw/Middlesbrough 4.75 21% implied
Cardiff/Middlesbrough 17.00 6% implied
Cardiff/Draw 15.00 7% implied
Cardiff/Cardiff 9.00 11% implied
Yes 1.50 67% implied
No 2.50 40% implied
2:1 9.00 11% implied
1:1 10.00 10% implied
2:0 11.00 9% implied
3:1 11.00 9% implied
1:0 13.00 8% implied
3:0 13.00 8% implied
2:2 13.00 8% implied
4:1 15.00 7% implied
Middlesbrough/Draw 1.14 88% implied Our tip
Middlesbrough/Cardiff 1.18 85% implied
Draw/Cardiff 2.38 42% implied
Middlesbrough 1.91 52% implied Our tip
Draw 2.75 36% implied
Cardiff 5.50 18% implied

Odds can change. Implied probability = 100 / odds and includes the bookmaker margin. 18+ Gamble responsibly.

Middlesbrough vs Cardiff: preview and prediction

Middlesbrough host Cardiff in the England Championship (Regular Season - 11) on Saturday, 17th October 2026 at 11:30 at Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough. Middlesbrough sit 3rd in the table and Cardiff 19th. Middlesbrough are 11 points ahead (22 to 11).

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
3 Middlesbrough 11641 22:16 +6 22
19 Cardiff 11254 18:17 +1 11

Full Championship standings

Middlesbrough have been inconsistent, with 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 games (D-D-W-W-D). Cardiff have been inconsistent, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (L-W-L-W-D).

In the last 9 meetings, Middlesbrough won 6, Cardiff won 1 and 2 ended level. These games average 2.9 goals, with both teams scoring in 56% and over 2.5 goals in 33%.

Our goal model expects about 2.1 goals for Middlesbrough and 1.1 for Cardiff. It gives Middlesbrough the edge (60% home win, 21% draw, 19% away win), 62% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 2-1.

Our pick was Both Teams Score (BTS) at odds of 1.44. We also like Home Win (1), Double Chance (1X).

Middlesbrough vs Cardiff FAQs

What is the best prediction for Middlesbrough vs Cardiff?

Our top tip is Both Teams Score: BTS (1.44 odds).

Who will win Middlesbrough vs Cardiff?

Middlesbrough are favourites: our model gives Middlesbrough 60%, the draw 21% and Cardiff 19%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 58% chance in our model, and it happened in 56% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 3.2 goals in total, with a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Middlesbrough vs Cardiff?

Kick-off is on Saturday, 17th October 2026 at 11:30 at Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough.

Who is the referee?

Tom Nield is in charge of this game.

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