Sagan Tosu vs Omiya Ardija

Match Analysis & Predictions

Japan: J2 League

Sat, 17th Oct, 2026 • 05:00 Regular Season - 11
Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu
11th in table
WLWWW
2 VS 1
Finished
HT 1 - 0
Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija
2nd in table
WDLWL
18' R. Morishita
38' O. Yamamoto
66' K. Sakamoto
80' Y. Kobayashi
83' H. Kato

Expert Prediction · Double Chance

X2 @ 1.55 (84% chance) Lost

Double chance : draw or Omiya Ardija
84% confidence

Match Odds

Home Win

2.30 39% implied

Draw

3.40 26% implied

Away Win

2.50 35% implied
Ekimae Real Estate Stadium, Tosu

Head to head

Last 9 meetings
9games
4Sagan Tosu wins
4Draws
1Omiya Ardija wins
2Goals per game
56%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
21 Jun 2025J2 League Omiya Ardija 0 - 0 Sagan Tosu
15 Mar 2025J2 League Sagan Tosu 1 - 0 Omiya Ardija
19 Aug 2017J1 League Sagan Tosu 3 - 0 Omiya Ardija
04 Jun 2017J1 League Omiya Ardija 1 - 1 Sagan Tosu
25 Sep 2016J1 League Omiya Ardija 1 - 1 Sagan Tosu
21 May 2016J1 League Sagan Tosu 0 - 1 Omiya Ardija
23 Aug 2014J1 League Omiya Ardija 1 - 3 Sagan Tosu
17 May 2014J1 League Sagan Tosu 1 - 1 Omiya Ardija
17 Aug 2013J1 League Sagan Tosu 2 - 1 Omiya Ardija

J2 League table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 Vegalta Sendai 11731 18:8 +10 24 DWWWW
2 Omiya Ardija 11551 21:11 +10 20 LWDWD
3 Albirex Niigata 11623 15:19 -4 20 LDWDW
4 Kataller Toyama 11542 20:11 +9 19 DDWDW
5 Yokohama FC 11533 20:14 +6 18 DLWDW
6 Shonan Bellmare 11461 12:10 +2 18 DDDWD
7 Oita Trinita 11452 16:9 +7 17 WWWDD
8 Fujieda MYFC 11353 13:11 +2 14 DLDDD
9 Tegevajaro Miyazaki 11353 15:15 0 14 DDDWW
10 Jubilo Iwata 11425 13:14 -1 14 DWLLL
11 Sagan Tosu 11425 11:13 -2 14 WWLLL
12 Tokushima Vortis 11425 10:12 -2 14 DLLWW
13 Montedio Yamagata 11416 11:9 +2 13 DLLWL
14 Blaublitz Akita 11344 12:12 0 13 LLWDD
15 Iwaki 10406 13:17 -4 12 WLLWW
16 Tochigi City 11326 17:18 -1 11 DLLLL
17 Consadole Sapporo 11326 13:19 -6 11 WLWLD
18 Imabari 11326 14:22 -8 11 DWWLL
19 Vanraure Hachinohe 11326 9:20 -11 11 DLLWL
20 Ventforet Kofu 10316 9:18 -9 10 WLLLL

Top scorers

J2 League
1 K. SafoConsadole Sapporo 1goals 0assists 13apps
2 S. KawasakiNara Club 1goals 0assists 11apps
3 Pedro AugustoTochigi City 0goals 0assists 9apps
4 Haruka SuzukiKanazawa 0goals 0assists 1apps
5 Gun-il KimThespakusatsu Gunma 0goals 0assists 1apps
6 Taro KagawaKataller Toyama 0goals 0assists 1apps

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Our goal model
API-Football
Bookmaker
Sagan Tosu Draw Omiya Ardija
Value spotted: Omiya Ardija win at 2.50 (model 44% vs market 35%)

Most likely scores

1-1 12.1%
0-1 10.1%
1-2 9.1%
1-0 8.1%
0-2 7.6%
2-1 7.3%

Expected goals: 1.2 Sagan Tosu · 1.5 Omiya Ardija

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Over 3.5 goals29%
Both teams score54%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
25%
Form
75%
17%
Attack
83%
36%
Defence
64%
34%
Goal model
66%
75%
Head to head
25%
75%
Goals
25%
43%
Overall
56%

Recent form

5 W 0 D 5 L in the last 10
17 Oct 2026J2 League Sagan Tosu 2 - 1 Omiya Ardija W
14 Oct 2026J-League Cup Sagan Tosu 2 - 1 Avispa Fukuoka W
10 Oct 2026J2 League Sagan Tosu 1 - 0 Fujieda MYFC W
04 Oct 2026J2 League Blaublitz Akita 1 - 0 Sagan Tosu L
29 Sep 2026J-League Cup Sagan Tosu 2 - 1 Tokyo Verdy W
26 Sep 2026J2 League Montedio Yamagata 2 - 0 Sagan Tosu L
23 Sep 2026Emperor Cup Vissel Kobe 1 - 0 Sagan Tosu L
19 Sep 2026J2 League Sagan Tosu 1 - 3 Iwaki L
12 Sep 2026J2 League Imabari 1 - 0 Sagan Tosu L
05 Sep 2026J2 League Sagan Tosu 2 - 0 Tegevajaro Miyazaki W
2 W 5 D 3 L in the last 10
17 Oct 2026J2 League Sagan Tosu 2 - 1 Omiya Ardija L
10 Oct 2026J2 League Omiya Ardija 3 - 1 Vanraure Hachinohe W
07 Oct 2026Emperor Cup Urawa 3 - 2 Omiya Ardija L
04 Oct 2026J2 League Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1 - 1 Omiya Ardija D
26 Sep 2026J2 League Omiya Ardija 5 - 1 Ventforet Kofu W
19 Sep 2026J2 League Fujieda MYFC 1 - 1 Omiya Ardija D
12 Sep 2026J2 League Omiya Ardija 0 - 0 Oita Trinita D
06 Sep 2026J2 League Blaublitz Akita 0 - 0 Omiya Ardija D
02 Sep 2026J-League Cup Gainare Tottori 3 - 1 Omiya Ardija L
29 Aug 2026J2 League Omiya Ardija 2 - 2 Shonan Bellmare D

Season numbers

J2 League 2026

When the goals come

2
0-15'
3
0
16-30'
2
1
31-45'
3
1
46-60'
3
2
61-75'
2
3
76-90'
7
1
0-15'
1
0
16-30'
0
2
31-45'
4
3
46-60'
0
2
61-75'
2
4
76-90'
2
Sagan Tosu Omiya Ardija

Side by side

Sagan Tosu Omiya Ardija
10 Played 10
3 Won 5
2 Drawn 5
5 Lost 0
0.9 Goals scored per game 2
1.2 Goals conceded per game 0.9
1.4 / 0.4 Scored per game (home / away) 2.2 / 1.8
4 Clean sheets 3
4 Failed to score 2
1 Longest winning run 3
2-0 Biggest win 5-1
1-3 Biggest defeat -
1/1 Penalties scored 2/2

What comes next

Sagan Tosu
Albirex Niigata (A) 21 Oct
Vanraure Hachinohe (H) 25 Oct
Kawasaki Frontale (H) 28 Oct
Jubilo Iwata (A) 31 Oct
Shonan Bellmare (A) 03 Nov
Omiya Ardija
Kataller Toyama (H) 21 Oct
Yokohama FC (H) 24 Oct
Vegalta Sendai (A) 31 Oct
Iwaki (H) 03 Nov
Tochigi City (A) 08 Nov
Bottom thirdMid tableTop third

Sagan Tosu vs Omiya Ardija: preview and prediction

Sagan Tosu host Omiya Ardija in the Japan J2 League (Regular Season - 11) on Saturday, 17th October 2026 at 05:00 at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium, Tosu. Sagan Tosu sit 11th in the table and Omiya Ardija 2nd. Omiya Ardija are 6 points ahead (20 to 14).

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
2 Omiya Ardija 11551 21:11 +10 20
11 Sagan Tosu 11425 11:13 -2 14

Full J2 League standings

Sagan Tosu are flying, with 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 games (W-L-W-W-W). Omiya Ardija have been inconsistent, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (W-D-L-W-L).

In the last 9 meetings, Sagan Tosu won 4, Omiya Ardija won 1 and 4 ended level. These games average 2 goals, with both teams scoring in 56% and over 2.5 goals in 33%.

Our goal model expects about 1.2 goals for Sagan Tosu and 1.5 for Omiya Ardija. It gives Omiya Ardija the edge (30% home win, 25% draw, 44% away win), 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 1-1.

Our pick was Double Chance (X2) at odds of 1.55.

Sagan Tosu vs Omiya Ardija FAQs

What is the best prediction for Sagan Tosu vs Omiya Ardija?

Our top tip is Double Chance: X2 (1.55 odds).

Who will win Sagan Tosu vs Omiya Ardija?

Omiya Ardija are favourites: our model gives Sagan Tosu 30%, the draw 25% and Omiya Ardija 44%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 54% chance in our model, and it happened in 56% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 2.7 goals in total, with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Sagan Tosu vs Omiya Ardija?

Kick-off is on Saturday, 17th October 2026 at 05:00 at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium, Tosu.

More J2 League Tips

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