Piratas vs Tepatitlán

Match Analysis & Predictions

Mexico: Liga de Expansión MX

Sun, 18th Oct, 2026 • 01:00 Apertura - 13
Piratas Piratas
4th in table
WLWLW
3 VS 0
Finished
HT 1 - 0
Tepatitlán Tepatitlán
16th in table
LWDLL
21' L. Egurrola
33' J. Sanchez
36' U. Garcia
45+1' G. Baez
57' A. Moreno
65' J. Cruz
66' C. Fernandez
90+8' I. Doumbouya (Penalty)

Expert Prediction · Home Win

1 @ 1.17 (89% chance) Won

Combo Winner : Piratas and +1.5 goals
89% confidence

Match Odds · Bet365

Home Win

1.20 77% implied

Draw

6.50 14% implied

Away Win

11.00 8% implied
E. A. Ramirez Gutierrez

Liga de Expansión MX table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 CA La Paz 13733 30:17 +13 24 DWLWW
2 Leones Negros UDG 12732 28:17 +11 24 DWWLD
3 Monarcas 13724 23:15 +8 23 LDDLW
4 Piratas 13634 21:14 +7 21 WLWLW
5 Venados FC 13634 28:23 +5 21 DDWWL
6 Durango 13634 16:11 +5 21 WDWWW
7 Cancún 13544 22:18 +4 19 DDWLW
8 Mineros de Zacatecas 13535 26:23 +3 18 LDLWW
9 Tapatío 13526 23:25 -2 17 LWLLW
10 Dorados 13445 23:24 -1 16 WLLLD
11 Correcaminos Uat 13445 21:22 -1 16 LLDWL
12 Tlaxcala 13445 25:27 -2 16 DWDWL
13 CDS Tampico Madero 13436 14:20 -6 15 WDLLD
14 Cruz Azul Hidalgo 13355 16:20 -4 14 WWDLL
15 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 12417 10:23 -13 13 WLLLW
16 Tepatitlán 132110 10:37 -27 7 LLDWL

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Our goal model
API-Football
Bookmaker
Piratas Draw Tepatitlán
Value spotted: Piratas win at 1.20 (model 86% vs market 77%)

Most likely scores

2-0 13.6%
3-0 13.6%
4-0 10.2%
1-0 9.1%
2-1 6.8%
3-1 6.8%

Expected goals: 3 Piratas · 0.5 Tepatitlán

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Over 3.5 goals45%
Both teams score37%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
64%
Form
36%
64%
Attack
36%
57%
Defence
43%
96%
Goal model
4%
0%
Head to head
0%
0%
Goals
0%
70%
Overall
29%

Recent form

4 W 2 D 4 L in the last 10
18 Oct 2026Liga de Expansión MX Piratas 3 - 0 Tepatitlán W
10 Oct 2026Liga de Expansión MX Tlaxcala 4 - 2 Piratas L
04 Oct 2026Liga de Expansión MX Piratas 4 - 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca W
25 Sep 2026Liga de Expansión MX Mineros de Zacatecas 3 - 0 Piratas L
19 Sep 2026Liga de Expansión MX Piratas 2 - 1 Venados FC W
11 Sep 2026Liga de Expansión MX Cruz Azul Hidalgo 1 - 1 Piratas D
06 Sep 2026Liga de Expansión MX Piratas 4 - 1 Correcaminos Uat W
30 Aug 2026Liga de Expansión MX Leones Negros UDG 1 - 1 Piratas D
23 Aug 2026Liga de Expansión MX Piratas 0 - 1 Cancún L
15 Aug 2026Liga de Expansión MX CA La Paz 2 - 0 Piratas L
2 W 1 D 7 L in the last 10
18 Oct 2026Liga de Expansión MX Piratas 3 - 0 Tepatitlán L
13 Oct 2026Liga de Expansión MX Tapatío 4 - 1 Tepatitlán L
10 Oct 2026Liga de Expansión MX Tepatitlán 1 - 1 Monarcas D
03 Oct 2026Liga de Expansión MX Tepatitlán 3 - 1 CDS Tampico Madero W
19 Sep 2026Liga de Expansión MX Tepatitlán 0 - 1 Mineros de Zacatecas L
12 Sep 2026Liga de Expansión MX Venados FC 5 - 0 Tepatitlán L
04 Sep 2026Liga de Expansión MX Tepatitlán 1 - 4 Dorados L
29 Aug 2026Liga de Expansión MX Cruz Azul Hidalgo 6 - 0 Tepatitlán L
21 Aug 2026Liga de Expansión MX Tepatitlán 3 - 2 Tlaxcala W
14 Aug 2026Liga de Expansión MX Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1 - 0 Tepatitlán L

Season numbers

Liga de Expansión MX 2026

When the goals come

0
0-15'
0
5
16-30'
2
4
31-45'
3
2
46-60'
3
4
61-75'
1
6
76-90'
0
1
0-15'
2
1
16-30'
2
4
31-45'
7
3
46-60'
7
0
61-75'
4
2
76-90'
13
Piratas Tepatitlán

Side by side

Piratas Tepatitlán
12 Played 12
5 Won 2
3 Drawn 1
4 Lost 9
1.5 Goals scored per game 0.8
1.2 Goals conceded per game 2.8
2.2 / 1 Scored per game (home / away) 1.1 / 0.4
4 Clean sheets 0
4 Failed to score 6
2 Longest winning run 1
4-0 Biggest win 3-1
0-1 Biggest defeat 0-5
6/8 Penalties scored 1/2

What comes next

Piratas
Dorados (A) 25 Oct
Tapatío (H) 01 Nov
Tepatitlán
Cancún (H) 24 Oct
Leones Negros UDG (A) 01 Nov
Bottom thirdMid tableTop third

Betting markets

Odds: Bet365
Piratas 1.20 83% implied Our tip
Draw 6.50 15% implied
Tepatitlán 11.00 9% implied
Piratas 1.06 94% implied Our tip
Tepatitlán 8.00 13% implied
Over 2.5 1.30 77% implied
Under 2.5 3.40 29% implied
Piratas/Draw 23.00 4% implied
Piratas/Tepatitlán 51.00 2% implied
Draw/Tepatitlán 21.00 5% implied
Draw/Draw 12.00 8% implied
Piratas/Piratas 1.57 64% implied
Draw/Piratas 4.33 23% implied
Tepatitlán/Piratas 17.00 6% implied
Tepatitlán/Draw 23.00 4% implied
Tepatitlán/Tepatitlán 19.00 5% implied
3:0 8.50 12% implied
2:0 9.00 11% implied
4:0 10.00 10% implied
2:1 12.00 8% implied
3:1 12.00 8% implied
1:0 13.00 8% implied
1:1 13.00 8% implied
4:1 15.00 7% implied
Piratas/Draw 1.02 98% implied
Piratas/Tepatitlán 1.10 91% implied
Draw/Tepatitlán 4.33 23% implied
Piratas 1.50 67% implied Our tip
Draw 3.10 32% implied
Tepatitlán 8.00 13% implied

Odds can change. Implied probability = 100 / odds and includes the bookmaker margin. 18+ Gamble responsibly.

Piratas vs Tepatitlán: preview and prediction

Piratas host Tepatitlán in the Mexico Liga de Expansión MX (Apertura - 13) on Sunday, 18th October 2026 at 01:00. Piratas sit 4th in the table and Tepatitlán 16th. Piratas are 14 points ahead (21 to 7).

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
4 Piratas 13634 21:14 +7 21
16 Tepatitlán 132110 10:37 -27 7

Full Liga de Expansión MX standings

Piratas are in good shape, with 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (W-L-W-L-W). Tepatitlán are struggling, with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 games (L-W-D-L-L).

Our goal model expects about 3 goals for Piratas and 0.5 for Tepatitlán. It gives Piratas the edge (86% home win, 10% draw, 4% away win), 67% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 2-0.

Our pick was Home Win (1) at odds of 1.17.

Piratas vs Tepatitlán FAQs

What is the best prediction for Piratas vs Tepatitlán?

Our top tip is Home Win: 1 (1.17 odds).

Who will win Piratas vs Tepatitlán?

Piratas are favourites: our model gives Piratas 86%, the draw 10% and Tepatitlán 4%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 37% chance in our model.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 3.5 goals in total, with a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Piratas vs Tepatitlán?

Kick-off is on Sunday, 18th October 2026 at 01:00.

Who is the referee?

E. A. Ramirez Gutierrez is in charge of this game.

More Liga de Expansión MX Tips

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