FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05

Match Analysis & Predictions

Germany: Bundesliga

Sat, 17th Oct, 2026 • 13:30 Regular Season - 6
FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04
14th in table
DWWLL
0 VS 1
Finished
HT 0 - 1
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05
5th in table
LWWLW
24' Phillip Tietz
42' Nadiem Amiri
45' Kaishu Sano

Expert Prediction · Double Chance

X2 @ 1.40 (70% chance) Lost

Double chance : FC Schalke 04 or draw
70% confidence

Match Odds · Bet365

Home Win

3.00 32% implied

Draw

3.70 26% implied

Away Win

2.30 42% implied
VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen Richard Hempel

Head to head

Last 9 meetings
9games
5FC Schalke 04 wins
3Draws
1FSV Mainz 05 wins
2Goals per game
33%Both scored
44%Over 2.5
05 May 2023Bundesliga FSV Mainz 05 2 - 3 FC Schalke 04
09 Nov 2022Bundesliga FC Schalke 04 1 - 0 FSV Mainz 05
05 Mar 2021Bundesliga FC Schalke 04 0 - 0 FSV Mainz 05
07 Nov 2020Bundesliga FSV Mainz 05 2 - 2 FC Schalke 04
16 Feb 2020Bundesliga FSV Mainz 05 0 - 0 FC Schalke 04
20 Sep 2019Bundesliga FC Schalke 04 2 - 1 FSV Mainz 05
23 Feb 2019Bundesliga FSV Mainz 05 3 - 0 FC Schalke 04
29 Sep 2018Bundesliga FC Schalke 04 1 - 0 FSV Mainz 05
09 Mar 2018Bundesliga FSV Mainz 05 0 - 1 FC Schalke 04

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 Bayern München 6420 22:5 +17 14 WDWWD
2 Borussia Dortmund 6420 11:4 +7 14 DDWWW
3 SC Freiburg 5410 14:4 +10 13 WDWWW
4 Bayer Leverkusen 5311 14:8 +6 10 WWDWL
5 FSV Mainz 05 6312 14:10 +4 10 WLWLW
6 SV Elversberg 6312 12:11 +1 10 WLDLW
7 RB Leipzig 6303 16:11 +5 9 LWLWL
8 Werder Bremen 6231 12:12 0 9 DDWDW
9 Hamburger SV 6303 6:15 -9 9 WWWLL
10 FC Augsburg 6222 16:12 +4 8 LDLDW
11 Eintracht Frankfurt 6222 10:16 -6 8 WLDWL
12 1. FC Köln 6213 8:11 -3 7 LWLDL
13 VfB Stuttgart 6204 8:10 -2 6 LWLLW
14 FC Schalke 04 6123 4:7 -3 5 LLDWD
15 SC Paderborn 07 6123 5:9 -4 5 DLWLL
16 Union Berlin 6123 5:17 -12 5 DWLLL
17 1899 Hoffenheim 5104 9:13 -4 3 LLWLL
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach 5005 7:18 -11 0 LLLLL

Top scorers

Bundesliga
1 Y. EbnoutalibEintracht Frankfurt 5goals 1assists 6apps
2 P. SchickBayer Leverkusen 5goals 1assists 5apps
3 C. NkunkuRB Leipzig 4goals 1assists 5apps
4 M. OliseBayern München 4goals 1assists 5apps
5 Y. SuzukiSC Freiburg 4goals 0assists 5apps
6 N. FüllkrugWerder Bremen 4goals 0assists 5apps
7 P. TietzFSV Mainz 05 4goals 0assists 5apps
8 A. NusaRB Leipzig 3goals 3assists 5apps
9 J. BurkardtEintracht Frankfurt 3goals 1assists 6apps
10 I. MatanovićSC Freiburg 3goals 1assists 5apps

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Our goal model
API-Football
Bookmaker
FC Schalke 04 Draw FSV Mainz 05
Value spotted: FSV Mainz 05 win at 2.30 (model 72% vs market 42%)

Most likely scores

1-2 8.6%
1-3 8.1%
0-2 7.4%
0-3 7.1%
1-1 6%
1-4 5.8%

Expected goals: 1.15 FC Schalke 04 · 2.85 FSV Mainz 05

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals90%
Over 2.5 goals75%
Over 3.5 goals56%
Both teams score64%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
42%
Form
58%
24%
Attack
76%
63%
Defence
38%
0%
Goal model
0%
75%
Head to head
25%
60%
Goals
40%
52%
Overall
47%

Recent form

4 W 2 D 4 L in the last 10
17 Oct 2026Bundesliga FC Schalke 04 0 - 1 FSV Mainz 05 L
11 Oct 2026Bundesliga SC Freiburg 2 - 1 FC Schalke 04 L
03 Oct 2026Friendlies Clubs Austria Lustenau 0 - 1 FC Schalke 04 W
24 Sep 2026Friendlies Clubs Rot-weiss Oberhausen 2 - 5 FC Schalke 04 W
20 Sep 2026Bundesliga FC Schalke 04 0 - 0 SV Elversberg D
11 Sep 2026Bundesliga Union Berlin 1 - 3 FC Schalke 04 W
05 Sep 2026Bundesliga FC Schalke 04 0 - 0 Bayern München D
30 Aug 2026Bundesliga FC Augsburg 3 - 0 FC Schalke 04 L
24 Aug 2026DFB Pokal Hallescher FC 2 - 5 FC Schalke 04 W
16 Aug 2026Friendlies Clubs FC Schalke 04 0 - 3 Real Madrid L
7 W 1 D 2 L in the last 10
17 Oct 2026Bundesliga FC Schalke 04 0 - 1 FSV Mainz 05 W
10 Oct 2026Bundesliga FSV Mainz 05 3 - 4 Bayer Leverkusen L
03 Oct 2026Friendlies Clubs Waldhof Mannheim 0 - 3 FSV Mainz 05 W
19 Sep 2026Bundesliga Borussia Mönchengladbach 3 - 4 FSV Mainz 05 W
12 Sep 2026Bundesliga FSV Mainz 05 1 - 3 Eintracht Frankfurt L
06 Sep 2026Bundesliga Hamburger SV 0 - 5 FSV Mainz 05 W
29 Aug 2026Bundesliga FSV Mainz 05 0 - 0 SC Paderborn 07 D
23 Aug 2026DFB Pokal Krieschow 0 - 9 FSV Mainz 05 W
15 Aug 2026Friendlies Clubs FSV Mainz 05 2 - 1 Bournemouth W
08 Aug 2026Friendlies Clubs FSV Mainz 05 4 - 0 Paris FC W

Season numbers

Bundesliga 2026

When the goals come

0
0-15'
0
2
16-30'
2
0
31-45'
4
1
46-60'
1
0
61-75'
0
1
76-90'
6
1
0-15'
4
1
16-30'
0
0
31-45'
1
0
46-60'
3
0
61-75'
1
4
76-90'
1
FC Schalke 04 FSV Mainz 05

Side by side

FC Schalke 04 FSV Mainz 05
5 Played 5
1 Won 2
2 Drawn 1
2 Lost 2
0.8 Goals scored per game 2.6
1.2 Goals conceded per game 2
0 / 1.3 Scored per game (home / away) 1.3 / 4.5
2 Clean sheets 2
3 Failed to score 1
1 Longest winning run 1
1-3 Biggest win 0-5
3-0 Biggest defeat 1-3
0/0 Penalties scored 0/1

What comes next

FC Schalke 04
1. FC Köln (A) 24 Oct
Dynamo Dresden (A) 28 Oct
RB Leipzig (H) 31 Oct
1899 Hoffenheim (A) 08 Nov
VfB Stuttgart (H) 21 Nov
FSV Mainz 05
Werder Bremen (H) 24 Oct
VfL Bochum (A) 27 Oct
SV Elversberg (A) 30 Oct
Bayern München (H) 07 Nov
FC Augsburg (A) 22 Nov
Bottom thirdMid tableTop third

Missing players

FC Schalke 04
D. Ljubicic Knee Injury
M. Sylla Leg Injury
FSV Mainz 05
D. Kohr Foot Injury
O. Ruoppi Knee Injury
Silas Broken shinbone
R. Zentner Hand Injury

Betting markets

Odds: Bet365
FC Schalke 04 3.00 33% implied
Draw 3.70 27% implied
FSV Mainz 05 2.30 43% implied
FC Schalke 04 2.10 48% implied
FSV Mainz 05 1.67 60% implied
Over 0.5 1.04 96% implied
Under 0.5 13.00 8% implied
Over 1.5 1.20 83% implied
Under 1.5 4.50 22% implied
Over 2.5 1.67 60% implied
Under 2.5 2.20 45% implied
Over 3.5 2.62 38% implied
Under 3.5 1.50 67% implied
Over 4.5 4.50 22% implied
Under 4.5 1.20 83% implied
FC Schalke 04/Draw 13.00 8% implied
FC Schalke 04/FSV Mainz 05 23.00 4% implied
Draw/FSV Mainz 05 6.00 17% implied Our tip
Draw/Draw 6.00 17% implied
FC Schalke 04/FC Schalke 04 4.50 22% implied
Draw/FC Schalke 04 7.00 14% implied
FSV Mainz 05/FC Schalke 04 26.00 4% implied
FSV Mainz 05/Draw 13.00 8% implied
FSV Mainz 05/FSV Mainz 05 3.75 27% implied
Yes 1.57 64% implied
No 2.25 44% implied
1:1 7.00 14% implied
1:2 9.50 11% implied
0:1 10.00 10% implied
2:1 11.00 9% implied
1:0 12.00 8% implied
2:2 12.00 8% implied
0:2 13.00 8% implied
0:0 15.00 7% implied
FC Schalke 04/Draw 1.57 64% implied
FC Schalke 04/FSV Mainz 05 1.28 78% implied
Draw/FSV Mainz 05 1.36 74% implied Our tip
FC Schalke 04 3.25 31% implied
Draw 2.30 43% implied
FSV Mainz 05 2.88 35% implied

Odds can change. Implied probability = 100 / odds and includes the bookmaker margin. 18+ Gamble responsibly.

FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05: preview and prediction

FC Schalke 04 host FSV Mainz 05 in the Germany Bundesliga (Regular Season - 6) on Saturday, 17th October 2026 at 13:30 at VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen. FC Schalke 04 sit 14th in the table and FSV Mainz 05 5th. FSV Mainz 05 are 5 points ahead (10 to 5).

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
5 FSV Mainz 05 6312 14:10 +4 10
14 FC Schalke 04 6123 4:7 -3 5

Full Bundesliga standings

FC Schalke 04 have been inconsistent, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (D-W-W-L-L). FSV Mainz 05 are in good shape, with 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (L-W-W-L-W).

In the last 9 meetings, FC Schalke 04 won 5, FSV Mainz 05 won 1 and 3 ended level. These games average 2 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% and over 2.5 goals in 44%.

Our goal model expects about 1.15 goals for FC Schalke 04 and 2.85 for FSV Mainz 05. It gives FSV Mainz 05 the edge (13% home win, 15% draw, 72% away win), 75% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 1-2.

Our pick was Double Chance (X2) at odds of 1.40.

FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 FAQs

What is the best prediction for FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?

Our top tip is Double Chance: X2 (1.40 odds).

Who will win FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?

FSV Mainz 05 are favourites: our model gives FC Schalke 04 13%, the draw 15% and FSV Mainz 05 72%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 64% chance in our model, and it happened in 33% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 4 goals in total, with a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?

Kick-off is on Saturday, 17th October 2026 at 13:30 at VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen.

Who is the referee?

Richard Hempel is in charge of this game.

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