AC Milan vs Atalanta

Match Analysis & Predictions

Italy: Serie A

Sun, 18th Oct, 2026 • 16:00 Regular Season - 7
AC Milan AC Milan
6th in table
DLWDW
3 VS 2
Finished
HT 2 - 0
Atalanta Atalanta
10th in table
LLLWW
24' Gonçalo Ramos (Penalty)
41' Adrien Rabiot
43' Adrien Rabiot
57' Mario Gila
66' Gianluca Gaetano
68' Éderson José dos Santos
78' Relja Obric
81' Nikola Krstović

Expert Prediction · Double Chance

1X @ 1.22 (86% chance) Won

Double chance : AC Milan or draw
86% confidence

Match Odds · Bet365

Home Win

1.70 56% implied

Draw

4.10 23% implied

Away Win

4.50 21% implied
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan Daniele Chiffi

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
10games
2AC Milan wins
3Draws
5Atalanta wins
2.7Goals per game
70%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
10 May 2026Serie A AC Milan 2 - 3 Atalanta
28 Oct 2025Serie A Atalanta 1 - 1 AC Milan
20 Apr 2025Serie A AC Milan 0 - 1 Atalanta
06 Dec 2024Serie A Atalanta 2 - 1 AC Milan
25 Feb 2024Serie A AC Milan 1 - 1 Atalanta
10 Jan 2024Coppa Italia AC Milan 1 - 2 Atalanta
09 Dec 2023Serie A Atalanta 3 - 2 AC Milan
26 Feb 2023Serie A AC Milan 2 - 0 Atalanta
21 Aug 2022Serie A Atalanta 1 - 1 AC Milan
15 May 2022Serie A AC Milan 2 - 0 Atalanta

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 Inter 7610 21:9 +12 19 WWDWW
2 AS Roma 7520 16:3 +13 17 WDDWW
3 Lazio 6510 11:4 +7 16 WWDWW
4 Frosinone 7412 13:9 +4 13 WLWDW
5 Cagliari 6411 6:3 +3 13 DWWWL
6 AC Milan 6330 11:5 +6 12 DWDDW
7 Juventus 6321 9:5 +4 11 DWLDW
8 Como 6321 9:6 +3 11 DLWWW
9 Napoli 7313 10:7 +3 10 LWDWL
10 Atalanta 6303 8:8 0 9 WLLLW
11 Lecce 7304 9:12 -3 9 WLLWL
12 Sassuolo 7223 12:14 -2 8 LDLWD
13 Torino 6213 7:9 -2 7 WDLWL
14 Bologna 7124 6:10 -4 5 LWDLD
15 Monza 6114 9:15 -6 4 LWLDL
16 Parma 6114 4:10 -6 4 LWLDL
17 Udinese 7115 9:16 -7 4 LLLLL
18 Fiorentina 6114 7:14 -7 4 LDWLL
19 Genoa 7115 5:13 -8 4 LWLDL
20 Venezia 7106 6:16 -10 3 WLLLL

Top scorers

Serie A
1 A. RaimondoFrosinone 7goals 0assists 7apps
2 D. MalenAS Roma 6goals 0assists 6apps
3 Lautaro MartínezInter 4goals 0assists 5apps
4 D. MaldiniCagliari 4goals 0assists 6apps
5 Gustavo VarelaMonza 4goals 0assists 5apps
6 A. RabiotAC Milan 3goals 2assists 6apps
7 M. ThuramInter 3goals 2assists 5apps
8 G. KvernadzeFrosinone 3goals 1assists 7apps
9 Vasilije AdžićSassuolo 3goals 1assists 6apps
10 N. KrstovićAtalanta 3goals 1assists 6apps

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Our goal model
API-Football
Bookmaker
AC Milan Draw Atalanta
Value spotted: AC Milan win at 1.70 (model 74% vs market 56%)

Most likely scores

2-0 13.9%
1-0 12.4%
3-0 10.4%
2-1 9.1%
1-1 8%
3-1 6.8%

Expected goals: 2.25 AC Milan · 0.65 Atalanta

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Both teams score43%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
60%
Form
40%
60%
Attack
40%
64%
Defence
36%
100%
Goal model
0%
15%
Head to head
85%
38%
Goals
62%
47%
Overall
52%

Recent form

5 W 3 D 2 L in the last 10
15 Oct 2026UEFA Europa League Red Bull Salzburg 0 - 4 AC Milan W
11 Oct 2026Serie A Sassuolo 1 - 1 AC Milan D
20 Sep 2026Serie A AC Milan 3 - 0 Lecce W
16 Sep 2026UEFA Europa League AC Milan 0 - 2 Benfica L
12 Sep 2026Serie A Lazio 2 - 2 AC Milan D
06 Sep 2026Serie A Juventus 1 - 1 AC Milan D
28 Aug 2026Serie A AC Milan 2 - 0 Venezia W
23 Aug 2026Serie A Torino 1 - 2 AC Milan W
15 Aug 2026Friendlies Clubs Manchester United 2 - 4 AC Milan W
08 Aug 2026Friendlies Clubs Chelsea 3 - 0 AC Milan L
6 W 1 D 3 L in the last 10
15 Oct 2026UEFA Europa Conference League Atalanta 3 - 1 Pafos W
12 Oct 2026Serie A Atalanta 3 - 1 Venezia W
20 Sep 2026Serie A Juventus 2 - 0 Atalanta L
12 Sep 2026Serie A Atalanta 1 - 2 Cagliari L
05 Sep 2026Serie A AS Roma 2 - 1 Atalanta L
31 Aug 2026Serie A Atalanta 1 - 0 Bologna W
27 Aug 2026UEFA Europa Conference League Hapoel Tel Aviv 0 - 1 Atalanta W
23 Aug 2026Serie A Atalanta 2 - 1 Sassuolo W
20 Aug 2026UEFA Europa Conference League Atalanta 0 - 0 Hapoel Tel Aviv D
14 Aug 2026Friendlies Clubs Atalanta 1 - 0 Athletic Club W

Season numbers

Serie A 2026

When the goals come

1
0-15'
3
0
16-30'
1
0
31-45'
1
0
46-60'
1
9
61-75'
1
0
76-90'
1
1
0-15'
0
0
16-30'
2
1
31-45'
1
0
46-60'
1
1
61-75'
1
3
76-90'
3
AC Milan Atalanta

Side by side

AC Milan Atalanta
6 Played 6
3 Won 3
3 Drawn 0
0 Lost 3
1.8 Goals scored per game 1.3
0.8 Goals conceded per game 1.3
2.5 / 1.5 Scored per game (home / away) 1.8 / 0.5
2 Clean sheets 1
0 Failed to score 1
2 Longest winning run 2
3-0 Biggest win 3-1
- Biggest defeat 1-2
0/0 Penalties scored 0/0

What comes next

AC Milan
Atalanta (H) 18 Oct
Bournemouth (A) 22 Oct
Udinese (A) 25 Oct
Bologna (H) 28 Oct
Inter (H) 31 Oct
Atalanta
AC Milan (A) 18 Oct
Ajax (A) 22 Oct
Frosinone (H) 25 Oct
Fiorentina (A) 29 Oct
Parma (H) 02 Nov
Bottom thirdMid tableTop third

Missing players

AC Milan
M. Gabbia Thigh Injury
A. Saelemaekers Ankle Injury
Atalanta
E. Elmas Red Card
I. Hien Muscle Injury
F. Kessie Calf Injury
O. Kossounou Thigh Injury
G. Raspadori Thigh Injury
G. Scalvini Thigh Injury
K. Sulemana Knee Injury

Betting markets

Odds: Bet365
AC Milan 1.70 59% implied
Draw 4.10 24% implied
Atalanta 4.50 22% implied
AC Milan 1.30 77% implied
Atalanta 3.40 29% implied
Over 0.5 1.03 97% implied
Under 0.5 15.00 7% implied
Over 1.5 1.20 83% implied
Under 1.5 4.50 22% implied
Over 2.5 1.62 62% implied
Under 2.5 2.30 43% implied
Over 3.5 2.62 38% implied
Under 3.5 1.50 67% implied
Over 4.5 4.50 22% implied
Under 4.5 1.20 83% implied
AC Milan/Draw 13.00 8% implied Our tip
AC Milan/Atalanta 34.00 3% implied
Draw/Atalanta 10.00 10% implied
Draw/Draw 6.50 15% implied
AC Milan/AC Milan 2.62 38% implied
Draw/AC Milan 4.75 21% implied
Atalanta/AC Milan 21.00 5% implied
Atalanta/Draw 15.00 7% implied
Atalanta/Atalanta 7.50 13% implied
Yes 1.62 62% implied
No 2.20 45% implied
1:1 7.50 13% implied
2:1 8.50 12% implied
1:0 9.00 11% implied
2:0 9.50 11% implied
3:0 13.00 8% implied
3:1 13.00 8% implied
2:2 13.00 8% implied
0:0 15.00 7% implied
AC Milan/Draw 1.18 85% implied Our tip
AC Milan/Atalanta 1.22 82% implied
Draw/Atalanta 2.05 49% implied
AC Milan 2.20 45% implied
Draw 2.40 42% implied
Atalanta 4.75 21% implied

Odds can change. Implied probability = 100 / odds and includes the bookmaker margin. 18+ Gamble responsibly.

AC Milan vs Atalanta: preview and prediction

AC Milan host Atalanta in the Italy Serie A (Regular Season - 7) on Sunday, 18th October 2026 at 16:00 at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan. AC Milan sit 6th in the table and Atalanta 10th. AC Milan are 3 points ahead (12 to 9).

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
6 AC Milan 6330 11:5 +6 12
10 Atalanta 6303 8:8 0 9

Full Serie A standings

AC Milan have been inconsistent, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 games (D-L-W-D-W). Atalanta are struggling, with 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 games (L-L-L-W-W).

In the last 10 meetings, AC Milan won 2, Atalanta won 5 and 3 ended level. These games average 2.7 goals, with both teams scoring in 70% and over 2.5 goals in 40%.

Our goal model expects about 2.25 goals for AC Milan and 0.65 for Atalanta. It gives AC Milan the edge (74% home win, 17% draw, 9% away win), 55% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 2-0.

Our pick was Double Chance (1X) at odds of 1.22.

AC Milan vs Atalanta FAQs

What is the best prediction for AC Milan vs Atalanta?

Our top tip is Double Chance: 1X (1.22 odds).

Who will win AC Milan vs Atalanta?

AC Milan are favourites: our model gives AC Milan 74%, the draw 17% and Atalanta 9%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 43% chance in our model, and it happened in 70% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 2.9 goals in total, with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is AC Milan vs Atalanta?

Kick-off is on Sunday, 18th October 2026 at 16:00 at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan.

Who is the referee?

Daniele Chiffi is in charge of this game.

More Serie A Tips

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